First predictions
Well, I'm new to this blog, and I will tell you all right up front, that I have no where near the in depth knowledge, the fanatical die hard enthusiasm or the analytical sophistication as my two cohorts, Jason and Peter. I guess I am here to represent the view point of the average, maybe even just fairweather, Edmonton Oiler fan.
With that in mind, I probably will make very few predictions, because that will keep a lot of egg off of my face come the end of the year
None the less, there are two things I am confident about:
1) The Oilers are going to be a better team this year than they have been for the last couple of years
2) They are not going to be nearly as good of a team as a lot of fans viewing the season through copper and blue shaded 4-D lenses seem to think they are going to be.
My prediction for what it's worth...Edmonton will once again be fighting it out at the end of year for one of the bottom three positions in the Western Conference. The most significant difference over recent years is that those last few spots will be their's to lose over the last few weeks, as opposed having to take them over. They have improved after all, and if they weren't in the division that they are, they may be fighting for 4th or 5th. However they are simply not a division winning team, which takes the top 3 out of contention. I think between the theirs and the 2 other divisions that there are at least 2 other teams that won't win, but will finish ahead of Edmonton in the points department...leaving Edmonton wallowing between 6th and 8th.
Every team in the Northwest division, over the last 5 years, has finished over .500, with the exception of Edmonton in their brutal Stanley Cup Final/Chris Pronger hangover year of 06/07. I cannot find another division in professional sports that has this much parity..now I didn't look too hard beyond the sports that I am familiar with it, but even if I were wrong on that count, it's a cold hard fact in the NHL.
Basically most of the Northwest teams have similar (and pretty good) records against their non-divisional opponents. It's how they play each other that ultimately determines where they are going to wind up at years end. So the good news here is that even a small improvement by one team, with the tiniest of set backs by another, can produce a switch around in the standings. I expect that to be the case this year, which is why Edmonton will be on the inside looking out most of the year for a change. They are better, but they are young, uproven, and will be susceptible to confidence issues, and thus streaky play because of this. I think both Calgary and Vancouver will be better teams than they were last year, I think Colorado and Minnesota will be marginally worse. They need to split the games with Calgary and Vancouver (who handed their asses to them last year) and they need to play .750 hockey against Colorado/Minnesota, something they have struggled to do. If they remain relatively injury free, and the young guns play like they showed they were capable of last year..they should finish 2nd in their division. My guess is 96 points...very respectable, and good enough for first in a division like the Southeast (where they would probably finish with well over 100 anyway). 96 points would have put them 6th last year. The year before it would have only been good for 8th place, but of course that's because all the better teams benefitted from the bonus points the Oil were giving away like popcorn in February and March. This year though, because they will be taking some of the points from some better teams, they'll be worth relatively more.
The other major factor should be the relative improvements of two other conference rivals..namely Chigago and Phoenix. While less important than the prowess of their divisional rivals, this will lead to a bit of shake up in the standings, and I wouldn't be surprised to see these two teams in traditional Oilers territory, scrapping it out for 7th and 8th in the West....to the detriment of the bottom 3 teams in the Northwest.
Chicago in particular is poised to be take advantage of a division that has all but gift wrapped the Presidents Trophy to the Wings since the turn of the Milleneum. They won't overtake Detroit..yet...but they'll do enough damage that they can probably start engraving a P for Pittsburgh on that piece of hardware.
So let's see, I started out wanting to make one prediction but it has lead to 3 in total.
1) Edmonton will finish 6th or 7th in the West
2) Chicago will make the playoffs
3) Pittsburgh takes the president's trophy
Geez, I'm starting to sound like a seasoned blogger or sports columnist. Trust me though, once the season is under way, these predictions won't be worth the electronic ink they aren't written in.
With that in mind, I probably will make very few predictions, because that will keep a lot of egg off of my face come the end of the year
None the less, there are two things I am confident about:
1) The Oilers are going to be a better team this year than they have been for the last couple of years
2) They are not going to be nearly as good of a team as a lot of fans viewing the season through copper and blue shaded 4-D lenses seem to think they are going to be.
My prediction for what it's worth...Edmonton will once again be fighting it out at the end of year for one of the bottom three positions in the Western Conference. The most significant difference over recent years is that those last few spots will be their's to lose over the last few weeks, as opposed having to take them over. They have improved after all, and if they weren't in the division that they are, they may be fighting for 4th or 5th. However they are simply not a division winning team, which takes the top 3 out of contention. I think between the theirs and the 2 other divisions that there are at least 2 other teams that won't win, but will finish ahead of Edmonton in the points department...leaving Edmonton wallowing between 6th and 8th.
Every team in the Northwest division, over the last 5 years, has finished over .500, with the exception of Edmonton in their brutal Stanley Cup Final/Chris Pronger hangover year of 06/07. I cannot find another division in professional sports that has this much parity..now I didn't look too hard beyond the sports that I am familiar with it, but even if I were wrong on that count, it's a cold hard fact in the NHL.
Basically most of the Northwest teams have similar (and pretty good) records against their non-divisional opponents. It's how they play each other that ultimately determines where they are going to wind up at years end. So the good news here is that even a small improvement by one team, with the tiniest of set backs by another, can produce a switch around in the standings. I expect that to be the case this year, which is why Edmonton will be on the inside looking out most of the year for a change. They are better, but they are young, uproven, and will be susceptible to confidence issues, and thus streaky play because of this. I think both Calgary and Vancouver will be better teams than they were last year, I think Colorado and Minnesota will be marginally worse. They need to split the games with Calgary and Vancouver (who handed their asses to them last year) and they need to play .750 hockey against Colorado/Minnesota, something they have struggled to do. If they remain relatively injury free, and the young guns play like they showed they were capable of last year..they should finish 2nd in their division. My guess is 96 points...very respectable, and good enough for first in a division like the Southeast (where they would probably finish with well over 100 anyway). 96 points would have put them 6th last year. The year before it would have only been good for 8th place, but of course that's because all the better teams benefitted from the bonus points the Oil were giving away like popcorn in February and March. This year though, because they will be taking some of the points from some better teams, they'll be worth relatively more.
The other major factor should be the relative improvements of two other conference rivals..namely Chigago and Phoenix. While less important than the prowess of their divisional rivals, this will lead to a bit of shake up in the standings, and I wouldn't be surprised to see these two teams in traditional Oilers territory, scrapping it out for 7th and 8th in the West....to the detriment of the bottom 3 teams in the Northwest.
Chicago in particular is poised to be take advantage of a division that has all but gift wrapped the Presidents Trophy to the Wings since the turn of the Milleneum. They won't overtake Detroit..yet...but they'll do enough damage that they can probably start engraving a P for Pittsburgh on that piece of hardware.
So let's see, I started out wanting to make one prediction but it has lead to 3 in total.
1) Edmonton will finish 6th or 7th in the West
2) Chicago will make the playoffs
3) Pittsburgh takes the president's trophy
Geez, I'm starting to sound like a seasoned blogger or sports columnist. Trust me though, once the season is under way, these predictions won't be worth the electronic ink they aren't written in.
Labels: start of the year predictions
posted by Trevor at
4:25 PM
1 Comments:
Great post Trevor, glad to have you on board.
Personally I do actually think that the Oil have a chance to finish in the top 4 in our conference this year. We really have a lot of eggs in our rookie basket this year though. Hopefully there's no sophmore jinx on them.
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