DREW- A Fundamentally Flawed Analyst

First of all, let me welcome Drew to the blog, it's always beneficial to have varying viewpoints, even those that are contradictory. If for no other reason than they force us to better understand why we believe what we believe and love what we love.

In this case, that would be why do we, the other members of this blog, believe hockey is a great sport, and why do we love it.

You see, agree with Drew or not, he does make some valid points. He has two central tenets here in his inaugural post. The main one is that in hockey there is no single play that can be made that immediately reverse the positions of the winning and losing teams. He runs through a number of permutations to prove his point, and I spent some time considering all the possibilities and I have to concur with him that this is indeed the case in hockey. He is comparing hockey specifically to the three major North American team sports- namely Baseball, Basketball and Football. And truly enough, in each of these sports there are opportunities for a single play to have this outcome... though they are much fewer and farther between than he would have you to believe.

Where I, and I presume most other hockey fans, would disagree is that this difference between the sports represents a flaw of some type, or that it makes it inherently less exciting. He just sort of presumes this part without ever speaking to how or why this one particular difference (among many) represents a flaw.

The game altering single play certainly does provide for one type of excitement that I begrudgingly admit cannot be provided due to the nature of the scoring system in hockey, or any other one point sport. However, hockey- and any other single point sport- as that is the essence of his argument here- provide other types of excitement that you simply cannot get with games based on multiple point values. For instance, when the team you are cheering for goes ahead by a goal, or a point, or a peaknuckle or whatever, with limited time left in the game, you get the excitement of knowing your team has just created a formidable task for their opponents to win the game now. They can't just make one 'hail mary' play and turn the game right around, they must now make a minimum of two back to back plays that result in goals/points, etc. So what you get here is a chance for a mini celebration each time your team goes ahead, because in a sport like this, the likliehood of the team currently ahead in score eventually winning is much higher than it would be for a sport with a multi-layered scoring system. And the payoff on the other side is that a comeback win is that much more exciting. You can't just come back and win on the strength of one inspired play- there needs to be a sustained effort and legitimate momentum shift. So a comeback win is all the sweeter, it's not just a fluke.

Drew, in fairness, gives hockey a bit of nod when it comes to some of the other attributes of the game (speed, etc) then turns what could have been an honorable acknowledgement into a backhanded compliment with the parting 'along with every other damn sport' shot. Really Drew? Speed, you think that's a pretty important dynamic to baseball do you? Perhaps I've not watched as much baseball as you, but last I checked, a fluent pace wasn't exactly paramount to a baseball, or a football team's success. I'm not knocking these other sports, each has it's own particular virtues, and I happen to think that the two biggest virtues to hockey are the speed or pace of the game if you will, and the level of physicality which is not present in any other team sport.

By the bye, if you want to start talking about how a sport is 'fundamentally flawed' because it is a one point game, then you might do better than to utilize the most popular sport on the planet by way of example. Now I'm the first to admit that I'm not really the biggest soccer fan on the planet, and I honestly don't think it ever will catch on in North America the way the three 'major' team sports have. First of all, it's a case of too little, too late. There are major sports that have taken a strangle hold on the North American consciousness already, plus one 'on deck' if you want to count hockey. Soccer is just not going to get a market share here at this point. I'm not going to get into a critique or defence of soccer at this point, since after all, this is a HOCKEY blog, but suffice it to say, if it has enough appeal that it has been the most popular team game on a global scale for the last century, there must be something to it at an elemental level that people like. I'm not saying if 1000 people jump off a bridge that makes it right by any stretch, simply that there must be a compelling reason to motivate them to do so.

All that being said, one of the points that was maybe lost in Drew's post that I agree with is that NHL hockey has consistently shitty ratings, and that it probably never will catch on with the typical American viewer. I just disagree with why that it is the case. It's not an issue of the product's quality, it's an issue of the product's relevance. For the vast majority of North Americans (we're talking Canada and US, not Mexico, though that would just further prove my point), hockey has no relevance, because it's not something that can be accessed on a regular basis, at least not without very specialized access. There are roughly 350 million people between the two countries, of those, about 10% are in Canada, and the remainder in the US. Of the population in the US about 15-20% would reside in what you could refer to as the 'snow belt' where they have a long enough winter season, with sub-freezing temperatures that would be conducive to the natural formation of ice outdoors. Of these areas, the population is heavily weighted towards the north-eastern parts of the country (New York, New England, the other Great Lakes states). So out of the total population we have about 25-30% tops where the general population would have access to playing hockey on even a seasonal basis. In well over 90% of these areas, they would also have access to the other 3 sports on at least a seasonal basis.

And you want to wonder why the other sports would be more popular? It's basic geography and population density my friend. In EVERY part of the world where there is a decent base population, and a climate that includes consecutive months of sub-freezing temperatures on average, hockey is popular. This means Canada obviously, parts of the US north-eastern seabord, most of Northern Europe and Russia. They can play the game in these parts of the world, so they do, and they love it, and they love watching it.

Why on God's green earth would you think that most people in Nashville, Tenessee for example, would have any appreciation for a game they have never been able to play for the most part?

A better question of course would be why the NHL executives would think and allow this. The NHL did just fine plugging along in it's target markets for the first century of it's existence, before it decided against all reason to compete against the three other major American sports in markets it has no business being in. Professional hockey is an exciting, adrenalin inducing game for those who understand it. It is simply not viable as a 30 team league competing for the dollars of people in locales that don't support what basically amounts to a foriegn game. It was a profitable league, and could be again if it finally realized that retraction to it's true demographically realistic markets is the only way for it to operate. It could be a very a succesful 20 team, niche sport. But the NHL wants hockey to be something it is not, a global sport.

Maybe in a world where we all feared Al Gore's counter dimensional doppleganer, and Global Cooling was the impending scourge of the planet, a world where 50% of the poplulation was doomed to live in Canadian winter conditions for 6 months of the year, then hockey could reign supreme as one of the major team sports, attracting the best athletes on the planet. And in this alternate universe, maybe we could have someone like Drew, who could talk about how Basketball could never be a viable competitive game because no one is interested in any kind of game where the outcome of a one hour game is decided in the last 15 seconds more than 90% of the time.....and completely ignore the fact that most of the world can't play the game because they don't have hardwood.

Anyways, I look forward with anticipation to reason #2 regarding overtime. Considering that the entire premise of reason #1 is that a one point sport somehow takes excitement out of the game, it ought to be very intersting to see how something like 'sudden death' overtime, where every single moment might bring complete and total devastation or utter and complete victory to either team, could in actuality be a detriment to the enjoyability of the game.

Welcome to NHL freak, you NHL freak.

Trevor

p.s.- another beaut by the oil tonight, at 10% of the season gone they are firmly entrenched right where they ought to end up....fighting for those last few playoff spots.

NHL - A Fundamentally Flawed Game

Okay, this is my first blog here at NHL freak. And, at the risk of getting flamed by all the hockey fans out there, I'm going to tell you why hockey is - at its core - fundamentally flawed compared to the other three big North American sports (football, baseball, basketball).

You're probably wondering why I'd come to a blog called NHL Freak just to bash hockey. Well, it's because Jay asked me to. But before you jam a puck down my throat, let me tell you where I'm coming from. I grew up in Edmonton in the 80's. I played competitive hockey all through my youth. I followed the Oil through the 90's. I was pissed when the strike hit in 94-95, but I came back. Then, a few years ago, the we had the lockout.

With no NHL, I drifted to other pro sports. When hockey started up again, I never really bothered to come back. Why? Lots of reasons, I guess. I was spoiled by the incredible Oiler teams of the 80's. I hated the trap and the low scoring games. But there was more to it. I realized hockey was lacking key things that the other three sports have.

Now, I'll admit that the NHL has done a lot the past few years to try and win fans back: scoring is up, the salary cap seems to be working, shootouts are always fun. But it's not enough. As I stated earlier: hockey is - from a game perspective theory - fundamentally flawed. That's why casual fans don't appreciate it. That's why the TV ratings suck. And that's why it will never catch on with the typical Amercian viewer. (The same issues that apply to hockey also apply to soccer, which helps explain why it hasn't caught on over here yet, either.)

Okay, enough preamble - let's get to the point. Why is the game of hockey, at the highest levels, fundamentally different than basketball, baseball or football? There are three big reasons.

Reason Number One:
Hockey is the only sport where you can't go from losing to winning on a single play. A batter in baseball can drive in two or more runs, the NBA has 2 and 3 point baskets, and football allows you to vault 3 or even 6 points at a time. This sets up an incredibly dramatic scenario: the team is behind, an athlete stands with one final chance, knowing if he fails all is lost... but if he succeeds he's a hero who has brought sweet, sweet victory to his team.

Hockey doesn't have this; not even in sudden death overtime or shootouts. In sudden death, a mistake by a goalie can end the game... but it can't win the game. A player with a breakaway in OT can win the game with one shot, but if he misses he doesn't lose - the game keeps going. The terror of absolute failure never hangs in the balance with the thrill of ultimate victory on the same play.

Same with a shootout: if you're team is tied and you're the last shooter, you can win it all... but you can't lose, even if you miss. Conversely, if your team is behind and you're the last shooter, you can lose the game by missing, but scoring only means everyone keeps going - you didn't win the game. (Same thing applies to goalies in reverse, of course.)

This may seem like a minor point, but the ability to go from losing to winning with one play creates a level of excitement that simply doesn't exist in the NHL. This is why you see plenty of football, basketball and baseball movies, but very few hockey movies. They just can't make a climactic scene with the true hero/goat dichotomy on a hockey rink.

I realize that movies are different than sports, but they're both forms of entertainment. They rely on conflict and drama to evoke reaction in the audience. Both movies and sports are reflections of conflict and drama in real life... and the sad truth is that there simply isn't as much drama potential in one single hockey play as there is in the other three sports.

Okay... I've got two more big reasons why hockey is a fundamentally flawed game, but in the interest of keeping this blog to a readable length, I'll stop with the first one and open myself up to the slings and arrows of public opinion. If you want to comment on this, go ahead - but try to comment on the point I'm making. Don't argue about the tradition and history of hockey, or how it appeals to a national consciousness, or how it celebrats speed and teamwork. I freely admit that's true for hockey - along with every other damn sport out there. I'm only here to say why, from a meta-game design view, hockey will always be lacking in the eyes of the casual fan.

Oh, and here's a preview of reason #2 - tie games. (Yes, I know about shootouts... but tie games are still a problem for hockey. I'll explain why in my next blog.)

Drew

Canuckleheads

As I sit here watching the Edmonton Oilers play terrible defensive hockey for the 3rd game in a row, a couple of things are quickly becoming apparent to me.

Erik Cole is a superstar forward. He looked amazing tonight and was impossible for the Vancouver Canucks to contain. I think probably the Mattias Ohlund decided to focus his entire fight with Cole on disrobing Cole of his Jersey (Thus eliminating him from the game).

Don't get me wrong however, the Oilers would not have won this game with Cole in for the entire game.

Unless the Oilers start playing more responsibly in their own zone, this season is going to be a very long one indeed.

The Oilers have looked very intense for the most part, but they are letting opposing teams sneak in behind them, they are not clearing the puck out of their own zone, and goaltending is incredibly weak.

Offence is looking good, the puck movement and breaking out of their own zone looks very strong, the power play looks like it is going to be a force.

Very poor defensive play, I hope that Craig MacTavish takes a note and spends a bit of time on defence this week. Steve Staois is our strongest defensive d-man, Souray has really looked bad in our last three losses. He seems to always be caught flat-footed. Visnovsky has looked solid at both ends of the ice.

Very short post here, just had a few thoughts on my mind.

Charley Horses and Rolo bars

Souray is said in the Edmonton Sun that he is a maybe for tonight. Apparently the leg injury was just a bruise and isn't that serious.

Hopefully he can keep the injury bug to minor ones like this. He is a big part of the Oilers, for better or worse, and we need him to be functioning at 100%.

Also, from the sounds of it Dwayne Roloson might get a start either tonight or tomorrow in Colorado. More than anything this is probably an attempt to showcase him, so they can move him and free up some salary. His 3 million bucks would come in handy around January/February, assuming the Oilers are in a hunt for a playoff spot.

Should be a tough game for the Oil tonight. Chicago has been playing well the last couple games, they have points in all four of their last 4 tilts. Plus a change of face in the coaching department usually leads to renewed fire if only for a short time.

It doesn't look good for the Oilers tonight. I am going to say that a rusty Dwayne Roloson coupled with a Chicago team that looks like it is finding it's stride is going to spell disaster for the Oilers.

1. If Roloson starts my predicition is a 4-2 Chicago win.
2. If Garon starts my prediction is 3-2 Oilers win in an shootout.

$10,000,000.13 worth

The collosal headache known as Marian Gaborik may soon be over for Minnesota.

My guess is that Minnesota will likely try trade or sign the delicate Czech before the season gets too far under way.

Basically this fragile little waif has been unable to play a full season his entire career. He did play all but one game in 2002-2003, but he has only been in the league for seven full seasons, and he has missed more than 11 games due to injury in four of the seven, add to this that he starts out the season being injured.
His worst season was two years ago where he missed 34 games due to mysterious upper body / groin injuries.

Using history as our guide, a player who is only 26 years old missing this many injury games generally points to one or more of the following reasons:

A. The player is very poorly conditioned, so when game action starts their body is so out of shape it is much more likely to be easily damaged.

B. The player has some sort of chronic problem that affects them most / if not all of the time (Mario Lemieux is a good example).

C. The player is pretending to be injured because they don't want to play for the team they are on.

D. The player starts thinking they are a bigger star than they are, and start thinking that they should be treated differently, with more respect, extra benefits.
When they don't get them, they 'protest' by discovering a phantom knee injury, or the ever-mysterious 'upper body' injury.

Added to Gaborik's pathetic tale is that he (supposedly) turned down a 10 year 8 million dollars per annum offer. If this is true, then he wants to test out the free agent market at the end of the season. All fingers point to this being the case.

Hopefully no owner/president is stupid enough to shell out near crosby/ovechkin money for a player who doesn't have even close to the same amount of grit, talent, drive, or conditioning that an elite player in this league should have.

If he did turn down an 80 million dollar offer, that could possibly make him either the stupidest player in the NHL, or the player in the league with the worst agent.

The unfortunate reality in today's NHL however is that a ten million dollar talent with a ten-cent brain and three-cents worth of fortitude still write a pretty good ticket.

The 27 Million Dollar Press Box Man

Sheldon Souray is performing as expected - by getting injured that is. He managed to last 3 games, but we are already seeing what many were already saying which is Souray is a huge injury risk. With him the Oilers are no doubt better, as Souray has 4 points in the 3 games. At some point though, maybe the Oilers should just wait 'till he has a healthy stretch, cut their losses, and try to see what they can get for him. Maybe a desperate team like the Islanders would take him? Trouble is, nobody has money, or they have too much. Teams are either trying to save cash these days or making sure they do not go over the cap. Nobody will take a cap hit for Souray or if they are watching their pennies they won't take him and risk spending money on a guy so he can go get injured. That is a $27 million press box man.

For tonight's game people are calling Souray's problems a knee injury from that hit by Bertuzzi last night. OK... I will buy that. I saw the hit and it looks like he hit his knee. What if he hit his shoulder? I guess my point is, the Oil need a guy who is going to be there all year. If Souray is in and out again it disrupts the chemistry.

Smid will be in to take his place. He is rusty and did not look good in pre-season. He will get limited ice time so watch for Gilbert and Visnovsky log over 20 mins each.

Also Gagner is questionable for tonight. The Oilers will have to be better tonight as the chances of them getting all those power plays in a row again are slim. The chances of them winning without Souray and Gager make those chances even more slim.

I love the Oil, you all know that. Trouble is my hockey mind is taking over tonight. The Flames will win tonight putting the Oilers at 3 and 1 for the season. Sorry guys...get well soon!

Rookie Time

Just read on EdmontonJournal.com that Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers will be getting the start tonight against the Flames.

Not sure why this move is being made, Garon has played superb the first two games, and I can't see him being tired already just two games into the season. Garon will almost certainly get the start tomorrow against the Flames in Edmonton, I do understand not wanting to run Garon out in back-to-back games, but not being a coach, I would think that you'd want your better more experienced goalie in net in the tougher building, give yourself a better chance to win both games.

Maybe he's planning on playing a more defensive style game in Calgary, and a more offensive style game tomorrow night in Edmonton.

Anyways, I am going to change my prediction for score, let's say that the oilers still pull out a victory 4-3 in overtime.

Hockey night in Calgary

The Oilers have looked promising in their first two games this season, but in order to be successful this year, they are going to have to play well against their Northwest division rivals.


Tonight they take on the hated Calgary Flames. The Flames have looked pretty good so far, with the exception of a first game blowout by the Vancouver Canucks. Kiprusoff has looked shaky to start the season, and the Flames are really reliant upon getting allstar performances from Kipper and Iggy if they want to compete and be a mediocre to slightly above average hockey team.

Iginla can score 100 goals this year but if Kiprusoff lets in 5 or 6 per night it won't make any difference.

Bertuzzi has looked good in his first three games with the Flaming C's, he is driving the net hard, and burying his chances. The tough 6 foot 3, 245 pound left winger signed a 1.95 million dollar deal with the Flames in the off season, and so far looks like he might be one of the best bargains in the NHL.

That is, until you look between the Oiler pipes.

Mathieu Garon is a goaltender in the prime of his career (he turned 30 this year), and is showing that he is truly number one material. In his first two games this year, he has baffled the opposition. Positioning himself well, quick reflexes, and basically unbeatable down low, Garon is truly the Oilers greatest bargain. He is in the second year of a 2.2 Million dollar deal he signed before the start of the 2007-2008 NHL season. He is probably the greatest bargain in the NHL.

Hopefully Kevin Lowe gets to work sooner rather than later on a contract extension for this fantastic goaltender, we can't afford to lose him for nothing after this season is up.

On wednesday night we saw the benefit of having a mobile defense. Sheldon Souray snuck in from the point to jam in a goal, and my hero, Lubomir Visnovsky pounded a ridiculous slap shot past Anaheim's number 2 goalie Hiller for an amazing goal.

The Oilers power play is looking dangerous, it's been years since we saw this kind of puck movement with the extra man advantage. It's really fun to watch. The last few years Hemsky has basically been the quarterback of the power play, all the players would try to give it to him and he would make decisions as to where to go. This year we have already seen that quarterback duties are spread out between any of the 5 players on the Power play. I like what I see so far.

Defensively? Well it's painfully obvious that the Oilers are getting beat in their own end. On wednesday they looked flustered and chaotic. The good thing about this is that defense can be learned, offense can't. In past years we have had an excess of two-way forwards, this year we have an excess of offensive skill mixed with some defensive liability. I think MacTavish should be able to bring these guys around, make them a little more responsible in their own end, and not have to let the offense suffer because of it.

Garon is hot, Oilers can beat the flames tonight if they don't collapse in their own end. Look for the Oilers to beat up the Calgary Flamers 4-1.

Garon-teed Victory

Going into tonight's game, the media out there had some concerns with the Oil and they had a right to be. The Oilers were losing too many face-offs, had too many shots against, and looked terrible in their own zone. As the 1st period ended tonight, it was looking like the same trend was happening. The Oilers were losing important draws, the Oilers D was scrambling a little, and Garon was headed towards saving 30+ shots again....but wait that is just it people! Garon stopped 33 shots. We need not complain about anything else...for a few more games anyway. Garon is looking to me anyway, like his true self of 2007-2008. He is 2 games into being the Oilers #1 again and in my opinion has won the Oil both games so far. This is a good thing - we can work on the rest. If Garon can play that way night in and night out then Edmonton is half way there. They can work on the faceoffs and towards the end of the 2nd period tonight I saw some good defensive play. I also saw a great system that they have started with the forward coming down the middle during the back-check. Instead of following the play, MacT has the 3rd forward coming down the middle. Nilsson and Gagner both broke up the offensive play that way tonight and stopped some great scoring chances.

So that is the good stuff here people. The Oilers, so far, are in good shape and have a good system going here. Here are a few more positive aspects to their game that will add to wins in future games:

- Horcoff and Hemsky are supposed to be point-a-game players and so far they are. Horcoff has not skipped a beat from last year. He is looking outstanding. He protects the puck so well. For sure in the top 5 for 2-way forwards in the NHL right now.

- Gagner, Cogs, Nilsson cycle the puck very well. They are almost there in terms of getting it just right. Teams are going to have trouble with the speed and cycle down low which will lead to goals and will draw penalties.

- Visnovsky is the man. That's it, that's all. He is Edmonton's best D-man by far, he can log huge minutes, (he had 23 mins tonight and Souray had 25 - a great defensive pair) and he will score a lot for the team on the PP this year. If he stays healthy the Oilers will have success with him.

...So tomorrow if you hear the media saying that they are worried about the shots against or the faceoff percentage, do not pay any attention. Garon is standing on his head, the leaders are leading, and the boys are listening to the coaches and playing the system.

Lastly, I think it is time for a prediction. I will give it now and then run it down for you in a future post - The Oilers will finish 3rd in the west this year.

...talk later,

Pete

Out the window

Last night was the start of the North American season. I love it when all the analysts have to eat their words within the first 4 hours of the season. All I've heard over the last week was how bad Toronto is going to be, and how Vancouver is going to have trouble scoring.

Both of these things could still come true, I'll give you that.

Toronto looked pretty sharp going into Detroit and spoiling the banner raising party by taking two points out of Joe Louis Arena (probably the toughest building to win in if you are in visitors silks).

Toronto management came out in the last week and basically said that the team sucks, and don't expect it to do very good this year. If this was a calculated move it's a pretty risky one. If you are a boss do you really want all your employees to hate you? Ill admit that anger is a great motivating force, but it also has a huge chance of backfiring the next time you try to attract a free agent, or try to re-sign players you have. This was a classless, bone-headed move by Toronto brass.

After I watched Toronto beat Detroit, I decided to watch a washed up Def Leppard band butcher a couple of their old tunes. It's a good thing for the singer that the crowd was singing along with the band so loudly, he was brutal.

Next up was Calgary versus Vancouver. The offensively challenged Vancouver Canucks took on the Flames. The Flames looked flustered about 23 minutes into this game, the chances they gave the Canucks in front of their own net were unbelievable. Offensively, believe it or not, the flames had lots of chances, but Luongo with his brand new 'C' on his mask decided to make that 'C' stand for 'Cement Wall' and was unstoppable. The Flames threw more shots at Luongo, but couldn't beat him. Kippper didn't look good, don't get me wrong, but his team definitely let him down up front.

The thing to learn here? Talk is cheap. Once the season start throw out all the stupid predictions and trash talk and play the bloody game.

With that in mind, here are my predictions for this year.

1. Oilers will indeed make the playoffs this year, I will agree with trevor that they will probably end up 6th or 7th. A lot is going to depend on Garon and if he can play as good as he did last season, or if last season was a fluke. The Edmonton Oilers defense got a little less responsible defensively on the off season, (Jared Stoll was a good two way player, Matt Greene was pretty solid defensively) this will translate to better/more chances against our netminder so lets hope he's up for the task.

2. Ovechkin scores 60. Maybe more, but man this guy is amazing. I wish you could bottle this guys itchy trigger finger and give it to Ales Hemsky. If hemsky shot as often as Ovechkin hemsky would probably have 70 goals per season.

3. Crosby bounces back, 120+ points. Sid the Kid missed 29 games last year and only had 72 points. He's definitely the most gifted player in the NHL, but lets hope for Pittsburgh's sake, that he doesn't suffer the injury bug as badly as another Pittsburgh super star, Mario Lemieux.

4. Buffalo, Toronto both miss playoffs. Toronto looks very weak, buffalo didn't do much to improve the team in the off season.

Last year I made a most likely to get injured list, and a least likely to get injured list. The entire list as blown apart, so take this list with a grain of salt.

Most Likely to be injured - Marian Hossa, Mats Sundin (Only because if he ever res-igns he will be out of shape and prone to injury), Joe Sakic, Manny Legace (think he has a rebuilt knee), Jose Theodore (Is this guy made of glass?).

Least likely to be injured - Dany Heatley, Sergei Federov, Rick Nash, Alex Ovechkin, Chris Pronger.

Look for the Oilers to beat the Avalanche 4-2 on sunday night.

First predictions

Well, I'm new to this blog, and I will tell you all right up front, that I have no where near the in depth knowledge, the fanatical die hard enthusiasm or the analytical sophistication as my two cohorts, Jason and Peter. I guess I am here to represent the view point of the average, maybe even just fairweather, Edmonton Oiler fan.

With that in mind, I probably will make very few predictions, because that will keep a lot of egg off of my face come the end of the year

None the less, there are two things I am confident about:

1) The Oilers are going to be a better team this year than they have been for the last couple of years
2) They are not going to be nearly as good of a team as a lot of fans viewing the season through copper and blue shaded 4-D lenses seem to think they are going to be.

My prediction for what it's worth...Edmonton will once again be fighting it out at the end of year for one of the bottom three positions in the Western Conference. The most significant difference over recent years is that those last few spots will be their's to lose over the last few weeks, as opposed having to take them over. They have improved after all, and if they weren't in the division that they are, they may be fighting for 4th or 5th. However they are simply not a division winning team, which takes the top 3 out of contention. I think between the theirs and the 2 other divisions that there are at least 2 other teams that won't win, but will finish ahead of Edmonton in the points department...leaving Edmonton wallowing between 6th and 8th.

Every team in the Northwest division, over the last 5 years, has finished over .500, with the exception of Edmonton in their brutal Stanley Cup Final/Chris Pronger hangover year of 06/07. I cannot find another division in professional sports that has this much parity..now I didn't look too hard beyond the sports that I am familiar with it, but even if I were wrong on that count, it's a cold hard fact in the NHL.

Basically most of the Northwest teams have similar (and pretty good) records against their non-divisional opponents. It's how they play each other that ultimately determines where they are going to wind up at years end. So the good news here is that even a small improvement by one team, with the tiniest of set backs by another, can produce a switch around in the standings. I expect that to be the case this year, which is why Edmonton will be on the inside looking out most of the year for a change. They are better, but they are young, uproven, and will be susceptible to confidence issues, and thus streaky play because of this. I think both Calgary and Vancouver will be better teams than they were last year, I think Colorado and Minnesota will be marginally worse. They need to split the games with Calgary and Vancouver (who handed their asses to them last year) and they need to play .750 hockey against Colorado/Minnesota, something they have struggled to do. If they remain relatively injury free, and the young guns play like they showed they were capable of last year..they should finish 2nd in their division. My guess is 96 points...very respectable, and good enough for first in a division like the Southeast (where they would probably finish with well over 100 anyway). 96 points would have put them 6th last year. The year before it would have only been good for 8th place, but of course that's because all the better teams benefitted from the bonus points the Oil were giving away like popcorn in February and March. This year though, because they will be taking some of the points from some better teams, they'll be worth relatively more.

The other major factor should be the relative improvements of two other conference rivals..namely Chigago and Phoenix. While less important than the prowess of their divisional rivals, this will lead to a bit of shake up in the standings, and I wouldn't be surprised to see these two teams in traditional Oilers territory, scrapping it out for 7th and 8th in the West....to the detriment of the bottom 3 teams in the Northwest.

Chicago in particular is poised to be take advantage of a division that has all but gift wrapped the Presidents Trophy to the Wings since the turn of the Milleneum. They won't overtake Detroit..yet...but they'll do enough damage that they can probably start engraving a P for Pittsburgh on that piece of hardware.

So let's see, I started out wanting to make one prediction but it has lead to 3 in total.

1) Edmonton will finish 6th or 7th in the West
2) Chicago will make the playoffs
3) Pittsburgh takes the president's trophy

Geez, I'm starting to sound like a seasoned blogger or sports columnist. Trust me though, once the season is under way, these predictions won't be worth the electronic ink they aren't written in.

Lub up the Oil

Well another year is here, and Oiler fans are optimistic eternal once again.

The biggest change for the Oil this year was an upgrade on Defence.

Over the summer Kevin Lowe sent Jaret Stoll and Matt Greene to L.A. for Lubomir Visnovsky. Jaret Stoll has always been a great face-off man who has a big shot, but for the most part an under-performer. The Kings rewarded his career mediocre play with an excessively large 14.4 million contract for 4 years. Matt Greene is an average stay at home defenceman, who in all honesty has been steadily improving over the last couple of years, looking better and better in his own end.

What did we get back in Lubomir Visnovsky? He is an excellent puck mover, and has a big shot. He can throw his body around, and is pretty responsible in his own zone. Basically he steps right in as our number 1 defenceman, and will start off the year paired with Sheldon Souray. Lubomir is a huge upgrade from Jaret Stoll and Matt Greene, from the Kings perspective this move mainly shakes down to saving a few bucks, obtaining a veteran forward, and keeping the same level of defensive responsibility. There just aren't enough good play makers on Los Angeles' lineup to warrant having a great passer like Lubomir on it.

The numbers? Visnovsky's best year was 3 years ago (2005-2006) in L.A. where he played 80 games and went 17/50 for 67 points. He played all 82 games last year, and has shown that he is a durable guy that you can count on for a lot of minutes (22-24 minutes per night). His plus minus took a beating last year (-18), but you can probably chalk this up to the lack of high level players to play with more than anything else.

Look for him to get a ton of time on the power play this year, the first power play line looks like it is shaping up to be Visnovsky, Souray, Horcoff, Hemsky and Cole.

He's a great skater, a great passer and should be a huge help to the Power Play, one area where the Oilers have been in desperate need of help the last couple of years.

Steve MacIntyre vs Jim Vandermeer

Since this is my first entry, I will start off by saying that I have a lot to say about the Oilers, the new season, and some overall predictions. But I am actually going to wait a few days to write that one because this is going to be a big year in the NHL so I have a bit more thinking to do first.

I would like to start off by saying that the Oilers are going to look and act very different this year than they did last year. This is good because they have looked the same the last two years pretty much and have performed the same as well. If you want to change your performance then you have to make some changes.

The best change so far? Getting a real fighter in Steve MacIntyre. He is protection for the skill. Hemsky flat out said that he wants a tough guy to protect him. Well there you go. This is exciting for me as a fan and I have more on that in future posts.

For now check out MacIntyre's fight against Vandermeer. We lost the game but won the 1st fight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et9u0mNLX0k

Pete