Time to Evaluate

Edmonton Oilers 19-18-3

So I am not sure what exactly is going on with this blog, if anyone out there in blogger land will read this, or if any of the guys out there will read this, but I thought I would post my thoughts about the Oilers since we are 40 games in. It is time to evaluate.

To start, it looks I was way off on my prediction for the Oilers finishing 3rd in the west. What made me think this originally was that on paper the Oilers looked better than the Flames or the Canucks. I did not think that Vancouver would get any kind of scoring and I pretty much figured that Luongo would be injured at some point so therefore thought that Vancouver would poop the bed and fall in the standings. Unfortunately, the 'Nucks picked up Wellwood, and have received some pretty awesome secondary scoring from guys like Steve Bernier and Ryan Kesler. You throw in Sundin in now and Luongo returns and Vancouver looks pretty darn solid at this point.

The same goes for Calgary. My thoughts were that on paper originally they did not look that good. I looked at their team and thought that Langkow would struggle, Cammalleri would take time to adjust to the Flames system, and Bertuzzi was all washed up and would be a 4th liner in no time. Well, all those guys are having great seasons (although Bertuzzi is a -10 for the season) and guys like Moss, Borque, and Glencross have stepped it up and sorry to say that the Flames are looking pretty good too.

Which brings me to the Oilers. I cannot say good things about anybody except the obvious. Hemsky (until he got hurt - same old, same old) was looking pretty good and was showing the Oil why he was their best player. Souray came back from injury and stayed true to the form that he had in Montreal a few years ago. Other that those two guys I cannot say that anyone else has either surprised me or "stepped up to the plate" to make the Oilers better. Penner is hot one night and then turns around and does nothing the other night. Horcoff is playing unhealthy, again, and cannot seem to function without Hemsky right now. The kids are slumping (exception Cogliano) and the newer call-ups are not impressing me. Goaltending has been OK but Roloson has only stole the Oilers a few games. Other than that he has been just solid - but not amazing. I guess Cole has been better the past 10 games but that needs to last or he will be in the Penner camp.

Jason Gregor from The Team 1260 said it best yesterday so I will give him the credit - It is like Groundhog Day every year for Oiler fans. It is -60 outside every single freekin' day and the Oilers are inconsistent....again. Every year it is like Trevor said on his one post this year. The Oilers will win one-lose-one over and over again and at the end of the year will be on the outside looking in struggling to get the last 8th place playoff spot.

So lets see what we got here:

There is San Jose - in (I think they will win the cup)

Detroit - in

Calgary - in

Chicago - in

Vancouver - in

Anaheim - in

...so the rest of the teams have 2 spots left. Are the Oilers one of them? Based on what I have seen it will be just like last year. Close. The Oilers will have to go on a "run" just like last year. Will have to play crazy good on the road, just like last year, and fans again will be crossing their fingers and praying that teams like Dallas and Nashville crap the bed and the Oilers get in instead. It has been the inconsistency within the players that have caused this for the most part but it is not all them. What has management really done to improve the situation when the started to see it go south about 15 games ago? Nothing. Tambellini has done nothing to improve the team. MacTavish has benched a few players. Wow, way to use your coaching influence to really shake things up. What's next? Fight another fan or rip of the tongue of a mascot?

The only hope is that maybe some of the teams that are really out of it and have no hope at all like the Blues or Tampa Bay or Ottawa start unloading players and the Oilers get one or two. But again....groundhog day. We as fans are sitting here hoping for that star forward that will change our fate and save the day.

I love the Oilers of course but I just wish the management had more vision. I wish they would clearly state what kind of team the Oilers are and the team would stick to that identity and run with it. The Oilers are either in a semi-rebuilding phase or are overly optimistic about what they have on paper and then get injuries and/or have under-performance from the players. They have no #1 center and no real #1 goaltender. Again, same as every other year. They are tough one night, hitting and fighting everything they can, and then register no hits at all the next game. The same guys (Cole and Moreau, Stortini) are hitting every night and no other guys have decided that they will be tough for the team. They failed to protect Hemsky (for whatever reason it does not matter that the enforcer was hurt at the time) and Nashville imposed their will on our talent again and Hemsky is now on the IR.

I wrote in time and time again to the radio and maybe even on this blog that Hemsky needed more protection. Out of all the skilled players in the league, Hemsky has got to take the most punishment. Why? There is no reason for this at all. Coaching dropped the ball on that again.

The one bright spot about this is the new ownership. Katz Sports will not stand for this if the management cannot make some decisions to turn it around. If nothing changes with the team, then nothing will change with the play and standings. You cannot "hope" the team to be better or try harder. If they have no identity and the skill is always hurt then you will always get the same results. If that continues to happen then Katz will move the management and the coach will quit or be fired.

Maybe then we will see a change.

I am not really that upset though actually. I am just evaluating and it will be neat to see what happens. All I know is that in my opinion the first 6 playoff spots are taken so the Oilers have to be really good to battle it out with the other 7 teams (I did not count St. Louis, they are terrible).

My prediction - the Oilers will not make the playoffs, even though the other teams they are trying to catch are just as terrible and inconsistent. The reason is that a few of those other teams have a little more drive and identity. The Blue Jackets are one of them and have excellent goaltending. Dallas has started to improve as well but the Oilers could take that last spot from them. Does it really matter though? Until the Oilers management decide that Edmonton will have an elite team it will just be false hope. Look at the top 6. San Jose - elite and solid, will win the cup. Detroit - elite and out-of-this-world talented, will win the cup if SJ does not. Calgary - solid. Solid talent and solid goaltending and the best all around player in the NHL for me - Iginla. Chicago - crazy talent, great goaltending, and great coaching. Ducks - still have some unbelievable players and also good goaltending. Vancouver - the best goaltending out there, they now have 3 solid lines and 1 great checking line and have new hope with a star player.

The rest of the teams are not elite and not solid. They have all the same problems of the Oilers and are making excuses why they are not winning. They have hope like us fans do and just need that little extra push to hope their way in like the other teams. The top 6 though are just too strong. Pending a miracle, like I said, you will see San Jose win it all with one of the others like Calgary or Chicago being the dark horse. (Yes I am excluding the east but I do not see any team in the east as strong as Detroit or San Jose.)

My only real reason for cheering and watching is I guess a good one - for the love of the game. Wow...weird eh? I just love watching the hockey and I think I end up saying that ever year anyway. I have the NHL Centre Ice package so enjoy watching the strong teams and how they show how it is really done. Detroit plays their system to a "T" and so does San Jose. The Sharks are like sharks. They hover around their pray, waiting for a mistake and then strike. They know what they are going to do, they know who they are and what their identity is. They have toughness, they are big, they do not have very many weaknesses. The coaching knows what they are doing, they know what to do. Todd McLellan was an assistant with Detroit last year so he knows how to win a championship. Before that he was in the AHL and won a championship with Houston in 2003.

The Sharks are 30-5-5. Are you kidding me? Only 5 regulation losses! I cannot see them falling apart. Too much depth, too much leadership. The coaching staff all have winning records, they all know what it takes to win.

But I am getting off track here. The Oilers. I guess until I see the Oilers mirror an elite franchise like the Sharks and start doing the things like they are doing then I will just assume that they are still in rebuilding/finding their identity mode...again. It will be fun to see them do it and exciting to see guys like Gagner continue to develop.

Until then I know what is going to happen and what needs to happen and I do not have false hope. I feel sorry for the fans that sit on the edge of their seats praying that the game that they are watching is the one where the Oilers turn it around. It is not about that guys, it is about better coaching, preparation, talent, identity, and making bold moves to make your team better. Where are the bold moves Kevin and Steve? I would like to see a few - surprise me. Make me look like I do not know what I am talking about and make the playoffs.

I will still enjoy the game and keep my assessment of you 40 games in - you will struggle, you only have 2 spots to compete for - and you have a lot of work to do in order to get where the guys at the top are. Acknowledge that and you may be half way there to being a great franchise.

Later Oil, later boys if you are reading.