Follow up to: Time to Evaluate
A month ago I evaluated the Oilers' season and along with a few other points, described this season as "Groundhog Day" as I have seen the same team year after year. Unsure from one game to the next, the Oilers find themselves fighting near the bottom but not quite terrible enough to know they are out of it for sure this year.
So it is a month after my evaluation but not much has changed. Vancouver and Dallas have changed spots in my "sure 6" for the playoffs so here is what we've got - A month ago I said San Jose, Detroit, Calgary, Chicago, Vancouver, and Anaheim. Now we've got:
Detroit
San Jose
Calgary
Chicago
Anaheim
Dallas (who is 8-2-0 in their last 10 and playing awesome since Avery has left)
I believe for the most part this will stay the same for the rest of the season so as I mentioned we have 2 spots left to fight for. Are the Oilers going to be one of those 2 teams? Sorry boys, like a month ago the answer is no. And, like I said a month ago, there are other teams that want it more and have showed more heart and grit than the Oilers. We have Vancouver, Minny, CBJ, L.A., and the Oil. (That's right, don't look now but the Kings are IN IT.) I have taken out these teams:
Nashville (slim chance)
Phoenix (no way)
Colorado (no way)
St. Louis (no chance)
That means that the Oilers are to fight with the Wild, Vancouver, and the Jackets...and lets put the Kings in there, for the last 2 spots. I can break it down but I am not going to. You can see the writing on the wall here. Columbus wants it more because they have to make the playoffs, the Wild are better, Vancouver I think will pick it up here, and the Kings are really hot lately. (Stoll is looking not too bad these days - man are the Oil missing him right now)
The Oilers have days where they look great. Like last night against the Habs they looked like a team that had it together and new what they wanted to do. That said, the Habs were playing way later than usual (an 8:00 start is like 11:00 in Montreal) and had to play the Flames 2 nights before. But I am not going to take that win away from the Oilers. Usually when Hemsky is "on" and Roli is paying attention, and Souray is back there crushing bodies, the Oilers have a chance to win. The problem is, all the other guys on the team are just not sure if they are going to show up or not.
But we'll see - if the Oilers do well on this next road trip and stop losing 10-goal games when they come home, then maybe I will eat my words.
Like Trev said, it will come down to the last few games and the Oilers will be right down to the wire for making the playoffs. But you know what? Unlike their run in 2006, it does not really matter. What?
It does not matter. You know why? Because unlike 2006 the elite teams are way above the other teams. Detroit and San Jose are so dominant and so "on" their game that it does not matter. There is no way even Chicago or Calgary can upset these two.
As I have mentioned before, I have been watching every Detroit game this year. I have seen just as many Wings games as I have seen Oilers games. No...no...I am not turning into a Wings fan but I watch so I can marvel in the excellence that is Detroit's game. I see what puck possession teams should do and how the game should be played.
And then there is the Sharks. I still have them picked over the Wings to win the cup as I feel they have better goaltending and we all know how far good goaltending can go in the playoffs. Boston was looking dominant in the east but a lot of questions were answered when they lost to the Sharks the other night. The teams in the west are just stronger.
Now playing a sport should not be about packing it in just because the other team is better. If that were the case then teams would be folding during the Oilers' Gretzky days. We all know that every team thinks they have a chance to win and they do in a way. Most years it is always up in the air. In the past we have had Ottawa or New Jersey or the Ducks or Montreal all looking really good and any one of them, if they got on a roll, had a chance to win it all. This year I just see the Wings and the Sharks as way above everyone else.
So should the Oilers pack it in and start selling-off guys because the Sharks are going to win the cup and if they don't then it is probably the Wings? No, of course not. Just don't get your hopes up though, OK? Enjoy the Oilers for the team that they are trying to build and watch them, because they are still good. Just not elite yet. If it were me I would try to get a future asset for Cole and do not spend too much next week unless it is the right player (like Jagr for example).
In conclusion, my evaluation is still the same. I still am picking two of the other teams in the hunt to get those last 2 spots. Let's say the Jackets and Canucks make it. The Oilers are good when they show up, but are too inconsistent to win enough games to get ahead of the pack. MacT will be gone at the end of the year along with his other coaching staff. Also if something is going to happen trade wise - it should be tomorrow (Friday) or early next week.
It was great to see the Oil kick Montreal's but last night. Let's hope there are more game like that and the Oilers make a good run for it here. Please Oil let me eat my words and make the playoffs! Even if it is only for 4 or 5 games!
So it is a month after my evaluation but not much has changed. Vancouver and Dallas have changed spots in my "sure 6" for the playoffs so here is what we've got - A month ago I said San Jose, Detroit, Calgary, Chicago, Vancouver, and Anaheim. Now we've got:
Detroit
San Jose
Calgary
Chicago
Anaheim
Dallas (who is 8-2-0 in their last 10 and playing awesome since Avery has left)
I believe for the most part this will stay the same for the rest of the season so as I mentioned we have 2 spots left to fight for. Are the Oilers going to be one of those 2 teams? Sorry boys, like a month ago the answer is no. And, like I said a month ago, there are other teams that want it more and have showed more heart and grit than the Oilers. We have Vancouver, Minny, CBJ, L.A., and the Oil. (That's right, don't look now but the Kings are IN IT.) I have taken out these teams:
Nashville (slim chance)
Phoenix (no way)
Colorado (no way)
St. Louis (no chance)
That means that the Oilers are to fight with the Wild, Vancouver, and the Jackets...and lets put the Kings in there, for the last 2 spots. I can break it down but I am not going to. You can see the writing on the wall here. Columbus wants it more because they have to make the playoffs, the Wild are better, Vancouver I think will pick it up here, and the Kings are really hot lately. (Stoll is looking not too bad these days - man are the Oil missing him right now)
The Oilers have days where they look great. Like last night against the Habs they looked like a team that had it together and new what they wanted to do. That said, the Habs were playing way later than usual (an 8:00 start is like 11:00 in Montreal) and had to play the Flames 2 nights before. But I am not going to take that win away from the Oilers. Usually when Hemsky is "on" and Roli is paying attention, and Souray is back there crushing bodies, the Oilers have a chance to win. The problem is, all the other guys on the team are just not sure if they are going to show up or not.
But we'll see - if the Oilers do well on this next road trip and stop losing 10-goal games when they come home, then maybe I will eat my words.
Like Trev said, it will come down to the last few games and the Oilers will be right down to the wire for making the playoffs. But you know what? Unlike their run in 2006, it does not really matter. What?
It does not matter. You know why? Because unlike 2006 the elite teams are way above the other teams. Detroit and San Jose are so dominant and so "on" their game that it does not matter. There is no way even Chicago or Calgary can upset these two.
As I have mentioned before, I have been watching every Detroit game this year. I have seen just as many Wings games as I have seen Oilers games. No...no...I am not turning into a Wings fan but I watch so I can marvel in the excellence that is Detroit's game. I see what puck possession teams should do and how the game should be played.
And then there is the Sharks. I still have them picked over the Wings to win the cup as I feel they have better goaltending and we all know how far good goaltending can go in the playoffs. Boston was looking dominant in the east but a lot of questions were answered when they lost to the Sharks the other night. The teams in the west are just stronger.
Now playing a sport should not be about packing it in just because the other team is better. If that were the case then teams would be folding during the Oilers' Gretzky days. We all know that every team thinks they have a chance to win and they do in a way. Most years it is always up in the air. In the past we have had Ottawa or New Jersey or the Ducks or Montreal all looking really good and any one of them, if they got on a roll, had a chance to win it all. This year I just see the Wings and the Sharks as way above everyone else.
So should the Oilers pack it in and start selling-off guys because the Sharks are going to win the cup and if they don't then it is probably the Wings? No, of course not. Just don't get your hopes up though, OK? Enjoy the Oilers for the team that they are trying to build and watch them, because they are still good. Just not elite yet. If it were me I would try to get a future asset for Cole and do not spend too much next week unless it is the right player (like Jagr for example).
In conclusion, my evaluation is still the same. I still am picking two of the other teams in the hunt to get those last 2 spots. Let's say the Jackets and Canucks make it. The Oilers are good when they show up, but are too inconsistent to win enough games to get ahead of the pack. MacT will be gone at the end of the year along with his other coaching staff. Also if something is going to happen trade wise - it should be tomorrow (Friday) or early next week.
It was great to see the Oil kick Montreal's but last night. Let's hope there are more game like that and the Oilers make a good run for it here. Please Oil let me eat my words and make the playoffs! Even if it is only for 4 or 5 games!
posted by Pete at
9:09 PM
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